The Future Of Electric Vehicles in India.

EVs (Electric Vehicles) the future of India, or a nightmare in disguise.

Let’s begin with the advantages of stepping in of EV’s into the country. The first one being, it would not be using any fossil fuel to power itself, instead using electric power to power its drivetrain, thus reducing the usage of fossil fuels, which might alternately be used for some other useful purpose. Consequently, electric vehicles would cut off air and sound pollution at great levels. EV’s would also reduce the cost of travel per kilometers, at a considerable level, thus reducing the fares of the EV’s employed at commercial levels, like, in heavy transporting facility, including mono rails, buses, electric trucks. Electric motor powering the EV delivers constant torque and power to the vehicle which aids the vehicles performance from the very beginning, unlike the conventional motor where the peak torque and power kicks in at a certain level of RPMs.

Moreover, the working parts that run an EV’s would consist of 20 -25 parts to a maximum, and referring to our conventional petrol and diesel engines operated vehicles, where the count of working parts employed are more than 2000.

Looks like the EV’s have a brighter future ahead

Does the statement really hold true?

Digging deep into the statement, it may prove ominous for many.

On an average, EV is twice more expensive than the regular fuel powered vehicle.

At the heart of an EV, is a massive 500 kgs of Li-ion battery, consists of several large Lithium Ion cells powering the electric motor which brings life to an EV. The cells are made of metals like Lithium (Li), Cobalt (Co), Nickel (Ni), and Manganese (Mn), each one serving for different purpose.

Lithium (Li) generates the flow of electrons and also aids in high charge density, thus giving long life to the battery, as compared to the conventional lead-acid batteries.

Cobalt (Co) has a high melting point, which enables it to maintain strength at higher temperatures which serves in keeping the battery still functional at high levels of temperatures, thus preventing overheating of the battery.

Nickel (Ni) provides better corrosion resistance, greater toughness and more strength at high and low temperatures and a wide range of magnetic and electronic properties, which finds its way into producing Li-ion batteries.

And Manganese (Mn) provides high power output, thermal stability, and improved safety to the battery pack.

From above, it may be concluded that these critical metals are of utmost importance in making Li-Ion batteries.

Reserves of Critical Metals

Now, the question arises, "Do we have these Critical metals in abundance?" 

The answer to which is, “Not really.”

The problem is, world does not have enough of Lithium and Cobalt reserves to replace the current automobiles with EV’s. The reserves of these critical metals are limited to few countries only. Around 65% of Lithium reserves are located in Bolivia and Chile, while 60% of Cobalt reserves are in Congo. Short supplies of these metals have made them expensive which amounts to the 50% of the cost of the EV’s.

To sum up, the dreams of having EV’s running, is entirely dependent upon the availability of Critical metals with few Countries.

This is a thoughtful situation for major players like Tesla, General Motors, and all countries, except China.

China's long term plan

Now, you would wonder, “How would China be unstirred by the demand and supply gap of the Critical metals?”.

The answer to this is “China’s long-term planning.”

China managed to secure the supply of essentials metals with the purchase of mines in Congo, Chile, Bolivia, and Australia thus securing its EV future prospects. It controls half of the mines in Congo.

With reserves of raw materials by its side, China is set out to become a global hub for batteries and EV’s, having peaked the charts with more than million electric vehicles sold in the year 2018.

What needs to be done

The country is then left with mainly following two options:

Either, buy expensive Cobalt and Lithium and develop expertise to manufacture battery.

Or, Import the batteries.

The latter becomes much more viable option, because it is nearly impossible for the domestic manufacturing units to compete with the pricing of the imported yet subsidised battery.

Talking of India, India imports 90% of electric scooter components from China. EV’s will increase the import dependency of India upto 70% or more.

It can not be denied that EV’s are the future, but we aren’t prepared yet for this big change.

Instead, we should take time to evolve ourselves as a leader in battery technology in coming years which would then make way easy for the EV’s in India.

Moreover, the current automobile industry would hamper to a great extent from this big change.

“How?”

The answer to this is, if you remember, we discussed the count of moving parts used in EV v/s the ones used in Fuel powered vehicles, it came out to be 20 versus 2000.

The entry of EV’s would put an end to the manufacture of the various components which were exclusively used for the petrol and diesel powered vehicles, thus shutting major of the units engaged in automobile sectors, the survivors, if any, would be doomed to adapt with the "EV trend".

Also, many motor mechanics would be in a need to be reskilled to match up with the “EV trend”

Worst phase of the transition being,

 "The “EV trend” bringing an end of the journey, to the road side motor garages to a great extent."